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Downgrades Day

admin — Fri, 18 May 2012 15:21:25 +0000

In a race for downgrades, rating agencies took action targeting the two most burdened countries in the EMU. Moody’s confirmed today a rumor about the downgrade of 16 Spanish banks after having downgraded four Spanish regions, which added more pressure to the the Spanish economy. The increase in risk was reflected by 4-year Spanish Bonos yields, higher at 5.106% against a previous 4.319%. Fitch…

Holiday in Europe Keeps Trading Subdued

admin — Thu, 17 May 2012 19:18:34 +0000

While the news flow emanating from Europe has slowed, proving a temporary respite from risky assets, the pressure on Greek banks is growing. After market chatter and media reports, the ECB confirmed that some Greek banks had turned to the Bank of Greece for Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) pending recapitalization. The recapitalization that was to be finalized ‘soon’, and in theory would…

Spotlight on the Sterling

admin — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:14:43 +0000

Yesterday’s European session was a breather for the Euro area as German GDP came in much better than expected at 0.5% q-o-q. The strength of Germany’s numbers pulled EU’s GDP higher to 0.0% against a forecast -0.2%, avoiding a technical recession after last quarter’s -0.3% GDP. Nevertheless, both German and Euro zone economic sentiments were lower, underscoring a fading institutional optimism…

Weak Outlook for Australia

admin — Tue, 15 May 2012 17:14:02 +0000

The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be…

China’s growth engine cooling down.

admin — Mon, 14 May 2012 11:05:12 +0000

As anticipated in Friday’s newsletter, China cut its Reserve Requirement Ratio for the second time this year. Shielded by easing inflation, Chinese authorities relaxed their grip on banks’ cash reserves parked at the PBoC through a 50 basis point cut effective starting May 18. This measure will allow the RRR to drop to 20% for the main national financial institutions and will release an estimated…

Ongoing Greek Drama

admin — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:56:20 +0000

In light of the current political turmoil in Greece, the EUR has gradually slipped to a three-month low at 1.2905 after a period of trading in a highly volatile range. The move coincides with the election on May 6th of anti-austerity Greek fringe parties, instead of the mainstream PASOK or New Democracy Party who helped secure the bailout package much needed to avoid disorderly default. After…

All Eyes on BoE

admin — Thu, 10 May 2012 16:52:16 +0000

Bank of England stands to make a crucial decision today as turmoil hinders most of its peer Euro Zone economies. UK’s GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2011 by a revised 0.3%, and inflation remained higher than the 2% average target set by the BoE. During the last weeks, economic data in services and manufacturing were mainly affected by rising petroleum prices and austerity budget cuts…

Political Situation in Greece Drives Risky Assets lower

admin — Wed, 09 May 2012 10:49:37 +0000

Considering the risk building in Europe, the EUR has held up surprisingly well. However, given the following headlines from Greece, we doubt how much longer the single currency can remain resilient. Conservative leader Samaras stated “I tried to form a coalition government with two goals: that the country remain in the euro and bailout policies change to include growth measures,” the lack of…

Greek Election Result Worry Traders

admin — Mon, 07 May 2012 18:44:49 +0000

A wave of anti-austerity election results has shifted the market’s attention away from the weak US payroll reports and has sent traders in search of safe-havens. France Socialist leader, Francois Hollande defeated President Sarkozy. Frances’s new socialist President Hollande has expressed his distaste for the EU fiscal treaty and vowed to hold back France’s vote until additional growth measures…

On to Barcelona

admin — Thu, 03 May 2012 14:25:05 +0000

Expectations are increasing for today’s ECB rate announcement and press conference. It’s generally consensus that no major decision on interest rates or change in operations will come out of the ECB’s meeting in Barcelona. There is a growing anticipation that Draghi will sound significantly more dovish considering the recent deterioration in Eurozone economic data. Also it has not been…